Pack Break EV Calculator

Autograph

Relic / Patch

Short Print

Parallel / Prizm

Select card type

Choose Pokémon, sports cards, football cards or other to auto-label your hit type fields correctly.

Enter box config

Input the box price, packs per box and cards per pack from the product listing or box description.

Fill in hit rates

For each hit type, enter how many packs per hit (e.g. 12 = 1 auto per 12 packs) and the average market value from recent eBay sales.

Review your EV

See expected value, EV%, net profit after fees, and bear/base/bull scenarios — instantly calculated as you type.

What is expected value (EV) in card breaks?

Expected value (EV) is the average monetary return you'd expect from opening a box across many openings. Positive EV means you theoretically profit on average. Negative EV means an expected loss. EV is a statistical guide — individual results vary widely due to luck.

How do I calculate pack break EV?

EV = (hits per box × average value) − box cost − platform fees − shipping. For a 24-pack box with 1 auto per 12 packs (2 autos), each worth $80: gross = $160. Subtract eBay fees (13.25% + $0.30 = $21.20) and shipping ($8) = net $130.80. EV = $130.80 − box cost.

What is the best free pack break EV calculator?

ToolStack's Pack Break EV Calculator covers Pokémon, sports cards and football cards, includes eBay and Whatnot fee deduction, runs bear/base/bull scenarios, shows EV per pack and EV percentage, and works in GBP, USD, EUR, AUD and CAD. No signup required.

What EV% is good for a box break?

100%+ means positive EV — the box theoretically covers its own cost. Most retail boxes land at 60–90% EV. Professional breakers typically target 85%+ to maintain margins. Sealed case buys on hot products can hit 100–120% EV.

How do platform fees affect break EV?

Significantly. eBay takes 13.25% + $0.30 per card; Whatnot takes 10.9% + $0.30. On a $100 auto, eBay takes $13.55 vs Whatnot's $11.20. Across 20 hits per case, the difference adds up to $47 — a material impact on total EV.

Is pack EV the same as box EV?

Box EV is the total expected value of an entire box. Pack EV = box EV ÷ packs per box. Pack EV helps you compare different box formats — a 36-pack box vs a 12-pack box at the same total EV works out to different per-pack economics.

How does Pokémon box EV compare to sports cards?

Pokémon retail boxes typically run 60–80% EV. Sports card hobby boxes range widely — from 70% on slow products to 100%+ on sought-after releases. Pokémon benefits from massive secondary market liquidity; sports card EV swings more based on individual player performance and news.

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